NFL Week 10 Picks and Pizza Playbook: Scores, Deals and Halftime Food

I went 13-1 last week, and I’ve spent three days trying not to be insufferable about it. The one loss still stings: I called the Browns as an upset in New Orleans, and they lost by a single point in overtime. Cleveland and I have unfinished business, and the Browns are home on Sunday.

This week brings a 9:30 AM kickoff in Munich and the two AFC North leaders on Sunday night. First, though, the part where I own last week’s picks.

Report Card: Grading My Week 9 Picks

Week 9: 13-1 straight up, upsets 1-2, zero exact scores, and a 13-1 season record. That’s the whole series so far, since last week’s playbook was the first one. Every final below comes from Field Level Media’s Sunday roundup and the Fox Sports box score for Monday night.

Nailed it: the Monday night call

Last week I wrote that if Kyler Murray sat, the Bills pick would get “a lot more comfortable.” He sat, Carson Wentz started for Minnesota and went 8-for-25 for 81 yards and two interceptions, and Buffalo won 23-6. James Cook did the heavy lifting with 107 rushing yards and a touchdown. The score was way off, but the reasoning held.

The Burrow call, mostly right

I said Joe Burrow would put up four touchdowns at the Bernabéu. He threw three, ran for a fourth and went 24-for-29 for 271 yards in a 34-17 win. I even nailed Cincinnati’s 34 points. Atlanta’s 17 is all that kept me from an exact score.

The miss: Cleveland, of course

My Browns upset rested on one line: “I’ll take the better season anyway.” Shedeur Sanders stepped in for Deshaun Watson (concussion), threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns, and Andre Szmyt forced overtime with a 51-yard field goal with 8 seconds left. Then Tyler Shough hit Juwan Johnson for the winning touchdown in overtime, and the Saints won 23-22.

Right winner, wrong movie

I called the Packers over the Patriots as a one-possession game decided by “a late field goal.” Green Bay won 45-27. Jordan Love went 23-for-29 for 372 yards, three touchdown passes and a rushing score. My closest score of the week was Broncos 24-20 against a real 26-21, and my biggest miss on the margin was the Texans: I had a 20-16 grind, and Houston won 44-22.

Pizza fallout

My Deep Dish Award for the “heaviest win” went to the Bears. They needed a Cairo Santos field goal as time expired to beat Tampa Bay 27-24, while Caleb Williams threw four interceptions. The Burnt Crust Award (Chargers vs. Texans) held up. My Cold Slice pick, Gardner Minshew, went 21-for-30 for 166 yards in a 17-3 loss. He now faces a UCL injury that may need season-ending surgery, and I wish him well.

Thursday’s Jaguars-Ravens game (Jacksonville won 33-10) wasn’t in last week’s playbook, so it isn’t graded.

NFL Week 10 Score Predictions and Pizza Pairings

Week 10 starts Thursday, November 12, with the Commanders at the Giants on Prime Video, and ends Monday night in Baltimore. Times are Eastern, taken from CBS Sports’ Week 10 schedule. The Bears, Broncos, Eagles and Buccaneers are on bye, which gives Philadelphia a week off from a seven-game losing streak.

Lines come from VegasInsider’s Week 10 board (updated November 10), and the favorites match Covers in every game. Lines move during the week. My scores are opinions for bragging rights and group chats, not betting advice. If betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

My Two Upset Calls

Last week’s upsets went 1-2, which is a better average than my smoke detector has against my oven. This week I’m calling two more and leaving the Browns alone.

Panthers over Saints. Both teams are 3-5, and New Orleans is only a 1.5-point favorite at home. Bryce Young threw for 276 yards and three touchdowns against Denver last week, while the Saints needed overtime to beat a Browns team on its backup quarterback. With a line that close, I’ll take the quarterback who’s playing better.

Raiders over Seahawks. Sam Darnold is out for Week 10 with quad and rib injuries, so Drew Lock starts in Las Vegas. Lock went 19-for-28 for 175 yards against Arizona. Seattle’s defense is good, but a home team catching 3.5 points against a backup is my kind of gamble.

About the Browns. ESPN reports Deshaun Watson will start for Cleveland, but the Texans just scored 44 behind C.J. Stroud’s 384 yards and five touchdowns. I’m taking Houston, and if Cleveland wins, it goes in next week’s Report Card.

Three Games Worth Planning Dinner Around

Steelers at Bengals: the Sunday night main event

Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are both 6-2 and tied at the top of the AFC North. The Bengals have won four straight, and Ja’Marr Chase just caught 10 passes for 155 yards in Madrid. The Bengals are 3.5-point favorites at home, and I see a one-score game that Burrow closes out late.

Sunday night is no time for one-at-a-time pies. Bake a Sicilian pan during the late games, cut it into squares, and nobody waits for round two.

49ers at Cowboys: the shootout

This game has a 55.5 total, the highest on the board, and the matchup explains why. San Francisco is 7-1, and Brock Purdy went 17-for-25 for 232 yards with two touchdown passes and a rushing score against the Raiders. Dallas is 4-5, but Dak Prescott just threw for 335 yards and CeeDee Lamb caught 10 passes for 195 yards.

I have the 49ers 31-27, and I expect both defenses to look tired by the fourth quarter. Make the dough Saturday night with an overnight dough, and the 4:25 PM kickoff becomes stretch, top, bake and sit down.

Patriots vs. Lions: breakfast in Munich

Detroit is 6-2 after four straight wins, while New England comes in at 5-4. The Patriots’ backfield is also short: Rhamondre Stevenson is expected to miss a few weeks with a knee injury, and TreVeyon Henderson’s status is unclear. Drake Maye threw three first-half interceptions in Green Bay last week, so I like the Lions, 30-24.

A 9:30 AM kickoff calls for eggs on a crust. Pick from my lazy Sunday breakfast pizzas, or go German with a thin, crackly flammkuchen. It’s the one game all season where coffee counts as a pairing.

The Pizza Box Awards: Week 10

The MVP race changed hands on Monday. DraftKings’ latest MVP odds have Burrow at +210, Allen at +240, Purdy at +425 and Jordan Love at +650. Here’s who gets my hardware this week.

Pizza Deals and Coupon Codes for Week 10

These deals come from The Krazy Coupon Lady’s food deals tracker, updated November 10, and each one covers this week’s games. Prices and participation vary by store, so check your local app before you promise the group chat anything.

Casey’s pan pizza has a loyal following, and I dug into what makes it tick in my Casey’s pan pizza post. Wings people get a good week too: Wingstop lists $0.70 boneless wings on Mondays, and Buffalo Wild Wings runs buy-one-get-one boneless wings on Thursdays.

Long-shot codes worth 10 seconds of your time

These come from community-reported listings at DealsFinders, last checked November 9, not from the chains. I haven’t confirmed any of them, and big percentage-off codes like these are often limited to certain stores or menu prices. Paste one at checkout, and if it fails, move on.

• Papa Johns: 51ISBETTER, listed as 51% off regular menu-priced pizzas
• Papa Johns: MT50, listed as 50% off select orders
• Domino’s: APP50, listed as 50% off eligible app orders
• Domino’s: DOMNEW3, listed as 50% off your first three app orders

Order or Make It? Your Halftime Plan

Halftime lasts about as long as it takes me to realize I never preheated the stone. Choose your play before kickoff, based on how much work you actually want to do.

The Hail Mary: order delivery

Order at the end of the first quarter, not when the second quarter ends. Every pizza shop in town gets slammed at the same moment, and you want to be ahead of that rush. For the Thursday game, the Casey’s pan deal or Pizza Hut’s $10 large keeps it cheap.

The Two-Minute Drill: fast and homemade-ish

No dough, no stress, and still better than a sad slice:

• English muffin pizzas, which bake faster than a review takes
• A dressed-up Boboli crust when you want something that looks like an effort
• A pick from my best frozen pizza brands list, upgraded with your own toppings

The Long Drive: real dough, real bragging rights

Mix the overnight dough on Saturday, then bake a cast iron skillet pizza during the late window for a crust that crunches. For a full house, set up a DIY pizza bar and let guests build their own while you watch the game. My guide to throwing a pizza party like a pro covers the timing.

The Best Sides and Drinks for Game Day

Sides that buy your pizza more time

If you’ve got extra dough, turn it into a copycat of Domino’s stuffed cheesy bread or a tray of pizza bites that disappear before the first commercial break. If you ordered in, homemade Crazy Bread is the cheapest way to look like you tried.

Want something green on the table? My list of what to serve with pizza has salads that hold up on a buffet, and mini fruit pizzas make a lighter fourth-quarter finish.

What to drink with what

Pace yourself, especially on a day that starts at 9:30 AM. Drink responsibly, and line up a ride if you’re watching away from home.

Game-Day Pizza FAQ

What I’ll Have to Answer For Next Week

I’ve changed my season MVP to Burrow and picked against Cleveland. I’ve also backed a Raiders team getting 3.5 points against a Seattle defense that just held Arizona to 3. If Drew Lock beats me, you’ll read about it here first.

Whatever happens, get the food moving before the second quarter ends. If you want more ideas for a crowd, my look at why football Sunday is pizza night and my Super Bowl pizza ideas are ready when you are.

Sources

• CBS Sports, NFL Schedule 2026, Week 10
• VegasInsider, 2026 NFL Week 10 Odds (favorites checked against Covers’ Week 10 lines)
• Field Level Media, NFL roundup: Bengals rout Falcons in Madrid, tie AFC North lead
• Fox Sports, Bills vs. Vikings box score, Nov. 9, 2026
• Sports Illustrated, 2026 NFL MVP Odds After Week 9
• NFL.com, NFL news roundup, Nov. 9
• The Krazy Coupon Lady, Food Deals Near Me (updated Nov. 10, 2026)
• DealsFinders, Pizza Coupons and Promo Codes (community-reported codes)