October CPI: Grocery Cheese Rose 1.3% as Wholesale Prices Fell

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its October Consumer Price Index on November 10, and cheese and related products climbed 1.3% at the grocery store in a single month. That is more than three times the 0.4% rise for groceries as a whole. Fresh tomatoes jumped too, while flour, bread and canned vegetables held flat or slipped.

What the October CPI showed

According to the BLS October release, the food index rose 0.5% in October after a flat September. Overall consumer prices rose 0.4%, a tick above the 0.3% economists had expected, as FoodNavigator-USA reported citing a FactSet poll.

Groceries rose 0.4%, ending a run of flat or falling months that stretched back to July. Food away from home rose 0.5%, with full-service restaurants up 0.7% and limited-service spots (fast food, takeout and delivery) up 0.4%. CBS News framed its coverage around what the report means for inflation and interest rates.

One big caveat: this release has no 12-month comparisons for food. BLS did not collect October 2025 data during last fall’s lapse in federal funding, so there is no year-ago number to measure against. Every figure here is a one-month change, and one month is a snapshot rather than a trend.

The pizza basket, line by line

I pulled the items a home pizza maker actually buys from the detailed CPI table. All figures are seasonally adjusted, September to October.

Flour needs a footnote. The seasonally adjusted figure rose 0.8%, but the raw, unadjusted price actually fell 0.5%. The broader cereals and bakery group was flat, so dough ingredients are not where the pressure is this month. Cheese, on the other hand, rose 1.3% on both measures, which makes it the cleanest signal in the report.

On the causes, FoodNavigator pointed to energy costs working their way through the supply chain, with FMI’s Harig noting that those effects can take months to show up on shelves. The same report flagged tariffs as an ongoing factor, though the BLS data itself does not assign causes.

The wholesale picture

Here is the odd part. In the commodity market, cheese got cheaper. The USDA Dairy Market News weekly report for November 2 to 6 shows 40-pound blocks on the CME closing Friday at $1.5675 a pound, with the weekly average down $0.1275 from the week before. Barrels closed at $1.70.

Mozzarella supply looks solid on paper: September output came in at about 424.6 million pounds, up 4.4% from a year earlier. The report is less consistent on inventories, though. Its summary calls Italian-style stocks generally ample, while its Central region section describes strong demand, production struggling to keep up and tight mozzarella inventories. I’d treat that as a market that is balanced nationally but snug in places.

Retail and wholesale prices don’t move in lockstep: the CPI tracks what you pay at the register, not what a cheese plant gets paid. That gap is worth watching rather than explaining away, and we tracked a similar split in our early-October look at block cheese and mozzarella.

Why this matters for home cooks

Cheese tends to be the priciest ingredient on a homemade pie, so a 1.3% monthly bump is the one to plan around. A few practical moves:

Buy the block, not the bag. Bagged shreds carry an anti-caking starch coating that hurts the melt, and you pay extra for someone else to do the grating. If you’ve never done it, here’s how to shred mozzarella for pizza without making a mess of your counter.

Stock up when it’s on sale. The USDA report counted cheese as the most promoted item in grocery ads that week, and freezing mozzarella works fine for pizza if you grate it first. Pick the right type up front with our fresh vs. low-moisture mozzarella breakdown.

Lean on the pantry for sauce. Fresh tomatoes rose 1.7% while canned vegetables fell 1.2%. That’s a nudge toward a good can or a tube of paste, and a pizza sauce made from tomato paste is about as cheap as sauce gets.

Homemade still wins on math. Restaurant prices rose 0.5% in the month, and frozen prepared foods rose 1.0%. Flour stayed quiet, so dough is still your cheapest component, which makes the case we laid out in our August CPI breakdown even stronger.

What to watch next

The November CPI is due in December, and that release will show whether October’s cheese jump was a one-month blip or the start of something. Keep an eye on the weekly CME block price too. If wholesale stays soft through the holidays, retail cheese has room to cool off. For now, the numbers point one way: buy cheese on sale and make the rest from the pantry.